We used the future of the home as a case study in our recent scenario planning webinar. It's a fascinating topic - here's a deeper dive on the scenarios we developed...
Our recent webinar on culturally charged scenario planning saw us explaining and exploring how we use this technique to reach powerful outcomes for our clients – around objectives such as product and experience development, brand positioning, comms activation, new market entries, investments and partnerships strategy.
We used the future of the home as a case study. Why? For good reason as, post-pandemic, we can expect a long term shift in the in-home experience. Either because we’re still scared. Or we’ve decided to move to the suburbs. Or, as a society, we’ve realised the social inequality of renting. Or we’ve just decided to carry on making the most of in-home entertainment and exercise rituals that we formed in lockdown.
These potential transformations will have implications for all categories that are consumed, and occasions that take place, at home: finance, food, drink, sleep, beauty, entertainment, retail, fitness and more. But how to make sense of these numerous and diverse shifts?
As part of our culturally charged scenario planning workstream, after sifting through hundreds of future signs, we narrowed down to two critical uncertainties pertinent to the in-home environment in the next three-to-five years (with some initial manifestations of change likely to surface earlier still):
When it comes to the future role of the home, will people prioritise:
1. freedom, creativity and release – or look for reassurance, stability and protection?
2. championing the personal and individual – or embracing collectivism and belonging?
Above is how the critical uncertainties look in a typical scenario planning chart, with each of the four scenarios we consequently shaped up named per quadrant.
Next, we fleshed out these four scenarios. The results are both inspiring and slightly terrifying. Here goes…
Radical reinvention of public & private
In this scenario, we move from home ownership to community membership – subscribing to an area or suburb rather than a physical building. We no longer think of homes as assets or investments, and instead ownership becomes a right. After the Black Lives Matter movement of 2020, community support services are given more funding over the police force. City streets are pedestrianised and car parks are redesigned as community and resource distribution spaces. Smart homes use technology to ensure environmental efficiency – rather than productivity.
Protecting my tribe and local area only
In this scenario, neighbourhoods have become city states in their own right. To prevent further pandemics, national-level visa systems and processes are replaced by hyper local policies and requirements if you wish to move between individual communities. We have adopted bartering systems in place of shopping for big and global brands. Homes are a space for us to work on our craft and grow or create items to trade. Community isolation calls drive value and uptake of heightened home privacy and security systems. Architecture will also follow more community-minded values, creating safe spaces for neighbours to meet in, while keeping the rest of the city at a distance.
Distance as a design paradigm
In this scenario, hyper hygienic tech solutions are as common in the house as ovens and microwaves. We’re minimising the use of the tactile – touch screens become obsolete in favour of voice and face controls. Delineated entry points for the home, as per Japanese genkans, to maximise cleanliness, become standard features. Antibacterial surface materials, such as cork and copper, are utilised throughout the home, and sanitising vapours are misted into the air at regular intervals via a smart timer to improve the cleanliness of indoor air.
NEW (IN-HOME) HEDONISM
Maximalist aesthetics and in-home indulgences
In this scenario, we have abandoned minimalist design aesthetics and returned to ‘more is more’ maximalism. Importance is placed on sensory delight, where we choose furniture, devices and decorations that provide us with major stimulation. AI facilitates cognitive engagement, enabling us to play, explore, discover, experiment and learn through new experiences like holograms and VR gaming. Tech and furniture collide to amp up this sense of high stimulation. The hospitality industry continues to build in-home products and services to meet with the heightened appetite for indoor creativity, play and hedonistic fun.
Scenarios such as these can be used as creative springboards for new product and brand innovation, as a starting point for your next campaign, or to simply decide what you’re going to stop doing to avoid becoming obsolete. It’s unlikely that all four potential futures apply to you and your brand, but using this technique is about prioritising – which scenarios provide the most opportunities or threats, and what are you going to do about it?
We work scenarios into project stimulus and to identify workshop opportunity areas. We use them to write new brand narratives, to run ideation sessions and help our clients develop fresh concepts.
If you want to know more about the future of the home or how to work with scenario planning for your category or brand, do get in touch.
(Illustrations by Chloe Swayne from Crowd DNA’s Socialise team)